The Over-80 Wave Is Hitting the South First

The first of about 70 million baby boomers turn 80 in 2026 (NIC MAP via Bisnow, August 2026). The Census Bureau projects that the 80-plus population will grow from 14.75 million in 2025 to 18.79 million in 2030 and 22.91 million in 2035, gains of 27.5% and 55.3% (Census Bureau projection, 2023 series; Ridgeline calculation). The 85-plus group grows 58.6% over the same decade, against 19.7% for the 65-plus population and 3.8% for the total population.

Projections differ. JLL puts 80-plus growth over the next decade at 36.6%, from 14 million to 19 million, without naming its source (JLL, March 2026). We use the Census main series.

All three states' 80-plus populations grew faster than the nation's, both over the past year and since 2020 (Census Bureau, Vintage 2025; Ridgeline tabulation). Georgia has 406,540 people aged 80 and older, up 5.5% in a year and 28.1% since April 2020. Florida has 1,362,703, up 4.5% in a year and 24.5% since 2020. Texas has 1,013,204, up 4.6% in a year and 22.9% since 2020. The United States has 14,969,346, up 3.7% in a year and 18.0% since 2020.

The 85-plus group shows the same pattern: Georgia up 5.6%, Florida 4.8% and Texas 4.2% in one year, against 3.4% nationally. Florida remains the oldest of the three, with 22.8% of residents aged 65 or older, against 16.8% in Georgia and 14.9% in Texas (Census Bureau, Vintage 2025).

Florida's net domestic migration fell from 310,892 in 2022 to 22,517 in 2025, a 93% decline. Texas's fell 69%, from 218,840 to 67,299 (Census Bureau, Vintage 2025; Ridgeline calculation). Florida still added 178,674 residents through international migration in 2025.

Inside the state, metros are diverging. Miami's population fell 0.14% in 2025 and Pinellas County in the Tampa metro lost 11,834 residents, while the Tampa metro as a whole grew 0.40%. Jacksonville grew 1.49% and Orlando 1.29% (Census Bureau, 2026). Jeff Axley, Managing Principal, Ridgeline Capital Partners, has pointed to north Florida as a market where "you see a lot of in migration, retirees, you know, elderly people that, you know, doctors are chasing."

With domestic in-migration down 93%, more of Florida's older-adult growth comes from residents aging in place. Submarket selection now matters more than the state headline.

Medicare data shows outpatient use per person still rising. Fee-for-service beneficiaries averaged 3.0 hospital outpatient encounters each in 2024, up 4.0% from 2023 (MedPAC, March 2026). Vizient projects that outpatient volumes will grow 20% from 2026 to 2036, against 7% for inpatient discharges (Vizient projection, June 2026).

Employment points the same way. Health care added 520,400 jobs in the year to September 2026, up 2.2%, while total nonfarm employment rose 496,000. By that measure, health care added more jobs than the economy's net gain (BLS, October 2026; Ridgeline calculation). Ambulatory health care services, the segment that fills outpatient buildings, grew 2.4%. Health care added 17,000 jobs in September, below its 12-month average of 33,000.

For outpatient real estate, the takeaway is location. Demand follows older patients, so the submarkets where the 80-plus population is concentrated and growing matter more than statewide totals.

The main risk is reading a state headline as submarket demand. Miami lost population in 2025 while Jacksonville grew 1.49%, and a building's demand comes from its submarket, not its state.

The state employment data is uneven. Over the year to September 2026, health care employment rose 3.1% in Florida and 2.9% in Georgia but only 0.7% in Texas (BLS, preliminary, October 2026). The Texas figure is low against the state's population growth and is preliminary until BLS revises it.

The national projections carry their own gap. The Census 2023 series starts from 14.75 million people aged 80 and older in 2025, below the Bureau's later estimate of 14.97 million.

MARKET SIGNALS

Faster than the nation. In one year, the 80-plus population grew 5.5% in Georgia, 4.6% in Texas and 4.5% in Florida, against 3.7% nationally (Census Bureau, Vintage 2025).

A decade of growth ahead. The U.S. 80-plus population is projected to grow 55.3%, from 14.75 million in 2025 to 22.91 million in 2035 (Census Bureau projection, 2023 series; Ridgeline calculation).

Florida's reset. Florida's net domestic migration fell 93%, from 310,892 in 2022 to 22,517 in 2025 (Census Bureau, Vintage 2025; Ridgeline calculation).

The Census Bureau projects the U.S. 80-plus population will grow from 14.75 million in 2025 to 22.91 million in 2035, a 55.3% gain (Census Bureau projection, 2023 series; Ridgeline calculation). The first of about 70 million baby boomers turn 80 in 2026 (NIC MAP via Bisnow, August 2026). The 85-plus group grows 58.6% over the same decade.

Outpatient demand follows older patients, and use per person is still rising. Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries averaged 3.0 hospital outpatient encounters each in 2024, up 4.0% from 2023 (MedPAC, March 2026). Vizient projects that outpatient volumes will grow 20% from 2026 to 2036, against 7% for inpatient discharges (Vizient projection, June 2026).

Health care added 520,400 jobs in the year to September 2026, more than the 496,000 net gain in total nonfarm employment (Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2026; Ridgeline calculation). Health care employment rose 2.2%, and ambulatory health care services, the segment that fills outpatient buildings, grew 2.4%. Health care added 17,000 jobs in September, below its 12-month average of 33,000.

Florida metros are moving in different directions, so the state headline hides local decline. Miami's population fell 0.14% in 2025 and Pinellas County lost 11,834 residents, while the Tampa metro grew 0.40%, Jacksonville 1.49% and Orlando 1.29% (Census Bureau, 2026). A building's demand comes from its submarket, not its state.

For informational purposes only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security; any offer is made only through confidential offering documents. Projections are not guarantees of future results.